Indiana (+10.5) over Wisconsin.
The Hoosiers are 4-5 and the Badgers 6-2, but their positions could be so easily reversed it's laughable. Indiana, erstwhile Big Ten punching bag, has come out swinging this season, to almost no avail: The Hoosiers have endured achingly close losses at Michigan (36-33 with a late controversial call breaking against them) and Northwestern (where they watched a 28-3 lead turn into a 29-28 defeat in the closing seconds) on the books as well as last week's bizarro tilt at Iowa, also featuring some sketchy officiating.Wisconsin has made a habit of winning the close ones, beating Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight points each, edging Minnesota by a field goal and needing overtime to handle Fresno State in Madison. The Badgers have also lost convincingly to their only quality opponents thus far, by 21 points at Ohio State and 10 to Iowa. Though they outstrip the Hoosiers statistically by significant margins in the major offensive categories, the Badgers appear to be playing below their preseason potential while Indiana plays above theirs. Eventually, that's going to have to bear out on the scoreboard.
BONUS PICK! Washington (+4.5) over UCLA
Same story here. The Bruins and Huskies have identical 3-5 records and UCLA's somehow coming out as a favorite despite dropping five in a row in Pac-10 play after starting 3-0 outside of the conference. To date, the Bruins have beaten a 4-4 Mountain West team (San Diego State), an early Tennessee team still struggling to adjust to a wholesale coaching change, and Kansas State, which needs no introduction. Followed, again, by five straight conference losses.Washington's had an Indiana kind of season, losing to LSU by eight, at Notre Dame in overtime, and at Arizona State on a last-second bomb, all respectable losses, and the latter two of which were downright bad luck. Oh, and you might have heard that the Huskies did manage to beat USC. The standings just don't tell the story -- the records are the same, but the timbre and trajectory of these teams could not be more different.Posted by Nastinchka at November 5, 2009 02:12 PM